UEMOA: 6.1% growth in economic activity projected in 2021

Growth estimates for the year 2021 indicate an increase in the economic activity of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) of 6.1% against 1.8% in 2020, according to data from the Department of Economic Policies and the internal taxation (DPEFI) of the UEMOA Commission based in Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso.

“The negative effects of the health crisis on the economies of the Member States of the Union have clearly diminished”, indicates the DPEFI. Still according to this structure, the growth rate by Member State is quite disparate: + 7.0% for Benin, + 7.1% for Burkina Faso, + 6.5% for Côte d’Ivoire, +6, 3% for Guinea-Bissau, + 5.2% for Mali, + 5.5% for Niger, + 5.0% for Senegal and + 5.3% for Togo. In 2022, projects the DPEFI, a growth rate of 6.5% is expected under the assumption of the continuation of the recovery after the health crisis.

Regarding agricultural activity, the DPEFI notes that estimates for the 2020/2021 crop year indicate that for Burkina Faso, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, export production recorded respective increases of 31.6%. , 33.0% and 1.0%. << For Burkina Faso, the good performance of export crops can be explained, in part, by increases of 124.8% in soybean production, 63.5% in groundnut production and 14%. 5% of that of cotton >>, underlines the DPEFI. At the same time, declines were noted in Mali, Togo and Guinea-Bissau.

As for food production, the strongest increases were recorded in Guinea-Bissau, with an increase of 49.1%, compared to the previous season. Increases were also noted in Senegal, Benin, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso and Togo.

Regarding industrial activity, the DPEFI notes in its regional conjuncture note that the industrial production index of Guinea Bissau increased by 1.6% in the third quarter of 2021, compared to the previous quarter. The increase in the production of the Publishing, printing and reproduction of media branches (+ 4.4%), Manufacture of other mineral products (+ 1.5%) and Manufacture of food products (+ 1.2%) mainly explains this increase. On a year-over-year basis, however, the index fell 26.8%.

During the quarter under review, the Harmonized Index of Industrial Production rose 6.2% in Mali. This increase would be mainly attributable to the increase in the production of the Manufacture of tobacco products (+ 63.1%), Manufacture of chemical products (+ 25.7%) and Manufacture of electrical equipment (+ 22.9%) branches. ). On a year-over-year basis, the index increased 12.3%.

Over the period under review, the IHPI grew in Senegal by 7.6% mainly due to the increase in production in the Other products of the mining industry (20.8%), Refining and coking products ( + 10.1%) and Miscellaneous manufactured products (+ 15.5%). Compared with the same period in 2020, industrial production increased by 12.4%.

In Togo, the third quarter of 2021 was marked by a 3.3% drop in industrial production compared to the previous quarter. According to the DPEFI, this situation is mainly explained by the very significant drop in the production of paper and cardboard (-38.8%). Year on year, industrial production grew 9.8%.

What about activity in trade and services? According to the DPEFI, the retail turnover index fell 5.8% in Ivory Coast in the third quarter of 2021, compared to the previous quarter. This underperformance is explained, in particular, by the declines observed in the Petroleum products (-12.7%), unprocessed agricultural products (-6.2%) and Other products (-6.7%) branches. . On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 4.3%.

For Guinea-Bissau, this index improved by 3.1% over the period under review. This is the consequence of the increases noted in other electrical appliances (+ 44.4%). On a year-over-year basis, the index is up 8.9%.

As for Senegal, the turnover of trade shows an increase of 2.4% in the third quarter of 2021, compared to the second quarter of 2021. This increase follows in particular the increase of the turnover of the wholesale trade (+ 8.8%). On a year-over-year basis, the index was up 10.5%, mainly due to the trade and repair of automobiles and cycles.

Senegal’s services turnover index rose 0.04% in the third quarter of 2021, compared to a quarter earlier. This increase is mainly explained by the increases observed at the level of the Real estate activities (+ 28.4%) and Artistic and cultural activities (+ 36.7%) branches. On a year-over-year basis, this index increased by 19.3%.

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