After contracting by -0.6% in 2019 and -8.2% in 2020, Congo’s real GDP will once again fall into negative territory (-0.2%) in 2021, according to revised data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects growth of 2.4% in 2022.
“This recovery should be stimulated by the rise in oil prices, the rebound in Congo’s oil production, the deployment of vaccines, social spending, the repayment of domestic arrears and the expansion of agriculture, mining and services. However, the outlook is surrounded by significant uncertainty with risks of new waves of pandemic and volatility in oil prices, ”said the institution in a press release published on November 8, 2021, following a mission of its services in the country.
In virtual recession since 2016 due to the oil crisis, the Congolese economy, very dependent on hydrocarbon revenues – of which the country is the third largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa – is once again facing the effects of the Covid pandemic. 19.
But Brazzaville has just reached an agreement with the IMF on a three-year economic program that could be supported by an agreement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the amount of 456 million USD, a first since the absence. review in 2019. The program “would aim to maintain macroeconomic stability and boost economic recovery in the context of the pandemic and, in the years to come, to promote higher, more resilient and inclusive growth”, according to the institution based in Washington.
In a situation of over-indebtedness, the Congo will also have to negotiate with its partners, the restructuring of a total public debt expected to 84% of GDP by the end of the year.