By Khalid Cherkaoui Semmouni, Director of Rabat Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) intervention in Libya had a major role in the overthrow of the Qaddafi’s regime at 2011, which also had important repercussions at the regional level. As a result, endless and complex civil wars and Libya has gone divided among so many factions, and splitted between two rival governments, various rogue militias and tribes.
Since 2011, Libya has already become a source of concern for the international community because multiple security and economic challenges it imposes on the north of Africa and the Mediterranean region.
Indeed, the proxy war in Libya had created a real space of chaos favorable to the occurrence of created a real space of chaos favorable to the occurrence all kinds of threats to all countries of the region, add to the intervention of foreign countries : The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia, Turkey. It is a new colonial campaign of controlling oil and gas resources. Libya is rich in energy resources and occupies a strategic location that raises greed.
In December 2015, delegates from Libya’s rival factions signed the Libyan Political Agreement in Skhirat (Morocco), and they established a Government of National Accord (GNA), recognized by the United Nations. Although the GNA received recognition from the UN Security Council, as the legitimate government of Libya, but In the east, Tobruk parliament, aligned with Haftar’s forces, refused to endorse it. Add to the proliferation of new power centers that are spread across the territories as tribes, clans, and municipal councils. So, that Peace negotiations were complicated. Currently , Libya is in a big crisis because the war continues and the Libyan parties excluded the political solution .
the conflict has escalated and become a regional proxy war, because whoever wins in Libya will emerge a powerful figure in the Middle East. Eastern Libya is run by Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army. He is principally backed by the UAE, Egypt and Russia; and he appears to receive support from France, Saudi Arabia and Greece. The government in Tripoli is backed by Turkey and Qatar.
On 18 May, Government of the National Accord forces in Tripoli captured a strategic airbase « al-Watiya » that Haftar controllet it , an important Libian national army stronghold and its only major airbase near to Tripoli.They destroyed several Russian-made Pantsir air defence systems, by Turkish Bayraktar drones, in a serious blow to Haftar’s attempt to seize control of the Tripoli .It may also shift the balance of power between Russia, Turkey, Greece and the Gulf states and especially Strategic calculations for the UAE and Egypt .
The UN Security Council failed to pressure foreign actors to stop helping the warring parties in Libya for cease-fire and a return to the political process. The USA increasingly unwilling to play a leadership role in Libya, and a global pandemic distracting other countries, the results are proxy wars, armed drones and regional powers pushing forward when The UN Security Council role step aside .
Consequently, The only possible way to end the war is if the international community, under the leadership of the United Nations, intervenes by forcing the warring parties for cease-fire, and support establishing a civil state.
Indeed, A way out of the crisis can only be found through a negotiated political solution that the Libyans will choose under leadership the UN . Because , The foreign military intervention in Libyan affairs will lead to the increased tension which might lead to the fragmentation and split of the country and all-out war for many years.
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