One year after the start of operations to restore security in Tigray and when a UN report evoking “large-scale massacres” but hesitating on the use of the qualifier “genocide”, the war in Ethiopia is experiencing a kind of acceleration.
The rebels of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) supported by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) blew up the strategic lock of Dessie and Kombolcha, opening the road to Addis Ababa to them 400 km from the hostilities. This is a second important victory after the recapture of Tigray’s capital, Mekele, last June.
Improbable a few weeks ago, the capture of the Ethiopian capital, seat of the African Union, is now highly probable, experts say, while Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Nobel Peace Prize 2019 for being reconciled with Eritrea (now its ally in the war against the northern province of Tigray), triggered the state of emergency, giving de facto power to the military. After neighboring Sudan, which thought it had got rid of the military regime, will it be Ethiopia’s turn, the seat of the African Union, to fall under the control of the army, or even of the rebellion?
As a reminder, the Tigrayans have been fighting for a broad autonomy, even independence, since they were driven out of federal power in 2018. Faced with the advances of the rebels and while the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is weakened by the sanctions announced by the USA (suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act program AGOA) and the humanitarian disaster (400,000 people risk starvation) the questions are numerous. The international institutions in place in Abidjan have not yet launched withdrawal plans but are preparing for them forced by events. Long darling of the West, Addis Ababa needs a plan to reschedule its $ 30 billion debt with the UN. A boost suspended from the decision of Joe Biden very critical of Addis Ababa.
No longer able to source arms from Germany, France or Israel, Addis Ababa turned to Turkey and Iran. Another point of tension. While Beijing and Moscow oppose any sanctions, they have yet to provide substantial financial assistance to Abiy Ahmed, a faltering prime minister.
