Nowcasting was used for a long time in very short-range weather forecasting exercises before being applied to economics in 2008. In this context, nowcasting allows the monitoring of economic conditions in real time. This modern approach is relevant because one of the key measures of the current level of the global economy, in particular the gross domestic product, is only available in Côte d’Ivoire quarterly and annually with a considerable delay in addition to the revisions only. it needs. Consequently, economic agents whose activity requires real-time information on the state of the economy, are penalized. Bloomfield Forecast, is a forecasting tool that fills this gap for the benefit of investors, political authorities, central bankers and any other economic agent, by providing a signal on economic activity in real time.
Bloomfield Forecast photographs the economic conditions that influence financial flows, corporate profits, and fiscal or monetary policy decisions. Bloomfield Forecast allows economic and financial analysts to follow the main publications to detect the first signals useful for their decision-making. The tool promotes good investment decisions by facilitating decision-makers’ anticipation of the economic situation.
Bloomfield Forecast is based on statistical filtering techniques applied to a dynamic factor model. These techniques are very common in big data analysis because they efficiently summarize the information contained in large data sets through a small number of common factors. Bloomfield Forecast thus makes it possible to read information flows in real time and assess their effects on current economic conditions. The tool thus mimics the behavior of market participants and professional forecasters, making forecasts that are constantly updated in response to unexpected developments in economic releases. The figure below shows the forecasts from the BCEAO (red), INS (blue) and Bloomfield Forecast (green). The forecasts of INS and Bloomfield are relatively identical in the first and last quarters of 2019. Those of the INS and BCEAO are closer in the second and third quarters of 2019. The difference in forecasts is minimal for the BCEAO and Bloomfield Forecast in 2020.
These automated forecasts are relatively precise and strongly correlated with the forecasts produced by the institutions (in particular the BCEAO and the INS and experts in the field of econometrics) Bloomfield Forecast is of proven interest in particular for public decision-makers and concerned entrepreneurs. enter the Ivorian market based on the latest information on fluctuations in the economy. This would therefore allow commercial banks to better orient the diversification of their portfolios in terms of risks linked to the various sectors of activity; to public authorities whose planning needs require informed assumptions, to facilitate the strengthening of economic sectors if necessary; to the BCEAO and any other central bank to consolidate calculations and decision-making and finally to development aid organizations to better orient their financing.
