By Gérard Lafont
The meeting between the Egyptian Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi and the African Union enjoys a favorable alignment of the planets. The first is the natural candidate to lead the second towards its transformation into a supranational organization able to meet the challenges of the continent.
Last Sunday, Rwandan President Paul Kagame passed the torch of the presidency of the African Union to his Egyptian counterpart – Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi – during the 32nd ordinary session of the Assembly of the African Union. is held in Addis Ababa. A passage of witness which is in the continuity and which will be focused on the security and the economic integration of the continent. Dynamic president, Paul Kagame, initially controversial within the “AU”, knew in the space of one year to convince the cadors of the organization by its rational management and its political coups.
Leadership by example which should also be the strategy of his successor. The Egyptian head of state has, to do this, solid cards in hand.
The Sissi method, from Cairo to Addis Ababa
The stars seem to have aligned themselves for Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi. With nearly five years of experience leading the second African economy, the strong man of Egypt is above all the architect of successful economic reforms that should propel his country to the 7th world economy in 2030. After years of turmoil following the 2011 revolution, Egypt has returned to the path of an economically strong state, with spectacular economic growth in 2018 (5.6% against about 2% during the presidency of Mohamed Morsi) . Added to this are the notable successes in the fight against Islamist terrorist groups in Sinai. The terrorist organizations that sat in Sinai suffered defeat after defeat, and should be routed in the year according to the projections of the army.
Haloed by this double success, the Egyptian intends to apply the “Sissi method” to a continent that suffers the same evils as those affecting his native country when he came to power: a real security risk on the one hand, and an unequal economic situation on the other hand.
Security: Libya as a priority issue
Often criticized for its powerlessness in the face of the continent’s worsening conflicts, the African Union (AU) intends no longer to leave the United Nations, the United States and other Western countries on the front line on the security issue. It is in this logic that Paul Kagame had already created a “fund for peace” whose objective was to give the necessary means to the AU to facilitate the process of conflict resolution.
A fund that will be useful to the Egyptian presidency, the latter wishing to accompany the Libyans in the political process aimed at ending the crisis in a country torn apart by the civil war since 2011. On this subject, Egypt wishes moreover that the AU takes the hand again. “Africa has decided to support Libya in its efforts to get out of the war and terrorism,” President Sissi told reporters.
The organization intends to renew the success of the Bangui agreements, the name of this successful mediation in the Central African Republic under the leadership of Paul Kagame. As part of the continuity, the Egyptian president insisted on the importance of finding “African solutions to African problems”. A downside criticism of the overly preponderant role of foreign powers in the Libyan case – one of the most serious crises that the region has known for a long time.
In the African diplomatic circles, this voluntarism of the new head of the AU reassures. “Egypt will solve the problem,” said a confident Libyan official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Express, on the sidelines of the summit.
Economy: developing the integration of the continent
Another major axis of President Sissi, the economic future of Africa was also on everyone’s lips. “We will support the free trade area to promote the economic integration of the continent,” said Ehab Badawy, Egypt’s ambassador to Paris, for Jeune Afrique.
The creation of this continental free trade zone was one of Paul Kagame’s greatest achievements, although some of the largest and most influential countries – such as Nigeria – have not yet signed the agreement. Instructs then President Al-Sissi to transform the essay, the latter wishing to achieve during its mandate the 22 signatures necessary for the entry into force of the agreement. The objective is to create an economic zone strong enough to allow internal trade whose virtuous repercussions are no longer to prove. More generally, Africa is still sorely lacking in regional trade.
Long-desired, Africa’s economic integration, through intra-continental financing, is the only way to achieve sustainable growth.
Short time
It is undeniable that President Sissi wants to take this opportunity to restore the image of Egypt to its African neighbors. These had been durably affected by the Mubarak and Morsi presidencies, with a look almost exclusively focused on the European continent. In three years, the Egyptian head of state has set out to turn the tide. He traveled to Africa 21 times – out of 69 visits abroad – and organized 112 meetings with senior African officials, including on economic issues. “He wants to strengthen his position on the African continent and [that Egypt is not] considered a country turned only to the Arab world”, confirms, quoted by AFP, Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Institute for security studies.
It should be remembered, however, that Sissi’s term of office, like any rotating presidency, will last one year. Just long enough to strengthen or put in place the milestones of good security and economic cooperation. Too short to be able, as some hear it, to serve as a political tool or relay of lasting influence. As for Paul Kagame, Sissi’s presidency will be judged rather by tactical and diplomatic strokes, risk-taking and successes, which will allow the AU to continue its transformation towards a supranational organization capable of coordinating economic and security action of all countries.